Poker is a game of skill... at least according to a number of studies done by various researchers world-wide. Luck plays into it, of course; but out of every conceivable way a hand could be played, there is only one situation when which of the 2652 different starting card combinations you were dealt have any bearing on the outcome of the hand: the Showdown. Which is why good poker players avoid going to a showdown as much as possible.
I had a hand this morning that reinforced Chris Ferguson's advice from FTPA... if a hand is profitable for a call, it is more profitable for a raise:
The game is a $2+.25 No Limit Hold'em SNG. We're on the bubble -- 4 handed, 3 pay -- and blinds are getting a little higher than I'm comfortable with: 80/160, and I've got 1600 after posting my big blind. UTG folds, Button smooth calls, SB folds, I check my 9-4 off suit, with every intention of folding to the first bet.
Until I see the flop. 9-6-4 rainbow. Just like that my hand o' crap becomes two pair. I lead out, putting 300 into the 400 chip pot, figuring I'm short stacked anyway, this is probably going to be my best bet to get my money in. I haven't played very many hands to this point, and I figure a 3/4-pot bet will either push him out or make the pot nice for me.
The Button raises to about 1000. I trip my time bank and think. Dude has played so many hands in the last two blind levels I don't think he even has a starting hand range. What I don't put him on are pocket pairs -- I'm pretty sure he would have raised preflop with 6s or better, and I figure odds are that he doesn't have 9s or 4s. Which to me means he has done one of three things: 1) paired the bottom half of his Ace-rag, 2) picked up a straight draw, or 3) is trying to price me out of the hand with 2 over cards. Best case scenario, he's looking at a 6-outer, that's about 76/24 in my favor. What don't I put him on? A 9-6. I've got to figure, even with him limping in, that my hand is good. So I push.
He quick calls, shows 9-8. This is good news and bad news. Good news is that there are 6 cards that could make his hand better than mine right now -- any 6, any 8. Bad news is that if a seven comes, he goes from 6 outs to 13 outs (28% to hit) -- any of the three remaining 6s or 7s would give us the same two pair with him having the better kicker, any of the three 8s gives him a better two pair, any of the four 5s gives him a straight. Now, if the board paired 6s on the turn, I'd be behind, but I'd have a lot more outs: even though only the two 4s would give me the win, I'd be happy with a split pot, which meant any of the four 10, J, Q, K, or Aces left in the deck would save my arse: 22 outs, or about 45%.
Good news was, I doubled up when the final two board cards missed both of us.
You could see button steaming through the wires, I didn't have the heart to tell him if he would have raised instead of limping, I would never have seen the flop.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Poker: 4/7
After post last night, I ponied up into a few SNGs and picked up a few bucks. Bankroll to start the day sat at $12.93 / $T9.00.
An aside on FT Bankrolls: FT pays out in 5 different currencies. Most people will play with "Play Money", which is just that: you bet play money, you win play money. On the real money side, the base currency is the standard US dollar ($), and you use them like you would cash in a casino. The rest are a bit more involved.
First you have Full Tilt Points (FTP). They're Full Tilt's version of a customer loyalty program. Garner enough and you can enter into points tournaments, or trade them in for prizes -- a range of things from branded apparel to instructional videos and courses to electronics to a car (a Mini Cooper S, only 6,000,000 FTP). You earn FTPs by playing real money games: 1 FTP for every dollar raked in a cash game you're involved in, and 7 FTP for every dollar in tournament entry fees you pay.
Then there's Satellite Tokens. Available in $26 and $75 denominations, these prizes are awarded for winning certain satellite or points tournaments. Tokens can be used to enter any $24+2 or $69+6 tournament (respectively). I don't have any of these. Mostly because I don't want any of these. Even if I won a $26 Token, it'd have to sit. There's no way I'm good enough right now to play in a $26 tournament. I'm doing good to place in the 1.25, 2.00 and 2.25 tournaments I play. Strange thing I've noticed though. I do better in the 2 and 2.25 tournaments than I do in the 1.25s. I think its because I've got enough theory under my belt that I start looking for my opponents to have recognizable betting patterns, or some logic to their play and starting hand range. I can't count the number of times in $1.25s I've reraised the flop with top trips only to be outdrawn by what at the time was a middle pair that turned into a boat.
Finally, there's tournament dollars ($T). Certain tournaments - notably points tourneys - pay out in $T instead of cash. You also get credited $T (instead of cash) for winning a satellite and then un-registering from the main tournament. $T can be used to enter any tournament, but $T can only be used to enter tournaments. If you want to play in a ring game, you'll need to exchange the $T for cash. The exchange rate is $T1 = $0.95; or rather, there's a 5% commission (rounded up) on a tournament dollar exchange.
I managed to bust out of the $100 US Freeroll really freaking early. Trip 10s vs. a board set to flush that I did not see until after I had pushed all-in.
The Daily Dollar isn't going nearly as well for me, either.
150/300/25, I'm sitting with 8350 chips, putting me in 849/(1418/5773)[1]. Good news is my chair position, most hands I'm acting directly after the high stack on the table - who's sitting in 7th place in the tournament.
200/400/50 Pocket Rockets just doubled me up. Button -3 I raise 3x bb with AA. Big Blind calls me off. Flop comes Q/rag/rag. She bets, I push, figuring she has top pair (to my over pair), she calls; showing Q5. Aces hold up, I double up and put her on tilt. She goes out the next hand on A-rag vs A-J to the big stack, and the table breaks up. I've bumped my position up to around 400/(1200/5773)
250/500/50 Less than 30 people below the bubble. The current bubble boy has 1340 in chips.
300/600/75 Woo! I'm In the Money! --470th currently, but the blinds keep getting bigger...
400/800/100 A tense double-up (KK vs AQ) vaulted me up near 200th position as another prize level falls. I'm at 29K, next prize bubble currently has 6.5K .
500/1000/125 As the blinds keep getting bigger, my stack is holding up fairly well. We're into the $3.00 prize level (720-541); I'm in 275th with a 25.5K stack. I haven't been able to play many hands because of a lack of cards; though it seems the 23o I was just holding would have been good against the pusher's A10. Right now the next prize bubble is around 10K.
600/1200/150 Another blind level, another prize level. 260/530, next cutoff is 360th. Again, need to make some moves if I want to stay in the competition -- I've only got 7K on the bubble boy.
600/1200/150 A8 in the big blind vs A4 in the small, A on flop, SB leads, I raise, he re-raises, I push, he calls. Safe river and turn mean I double up and bounce myself up to about 125th /460. Don't feel too bad for the SB though; he doubled up the next hand.
3rd Break (800/1600/200): 133/436. After a slow start, I'm doing much better than I had imagined I would be at this point. I've locked up $3.50 -- a 350% ROI -- and with 49K chips, look pretty good to make the next prize level (360th place, currently ~16K). And the best part is, I'm not doing anything special: I'm making good lay downs, playing position fairly well, and keeping a low profile.
1000/2000/250: Another run of dry cards. I'm still holding in with 40K, thanks to some timely folds; and I've made it to the next prize level (next cutoff: 270th, ~20K). Still, with 20BBs, I should probably think about loosening my starting hand requirements a bit.
1200/2400/300: Still on a dry run. Down to 30K, I'm well below the cutoff for the next prize level. So at the moment, it really doesn't matter if I bust out: I just don't have enough chips to stall through this prize level. So we up the agression a tad. Still not gonna play crap hands, but I'm gonna have to actually play.
I'm holding KQ off-suit UTG+2. Action folds to me, I raise 3 times the big blind, and everybody else folds. And that's how you steal the blinds.
**sigh** Got a little too anxious. Reraised all in from the big blind with AK. The board gives my one caller a pair of jacks. Oh well, I still upped my bankroll 5 bucks. Now, I need to scoot over to the ring tables to pick up a FTP, to qualify for the $5 bonus for the Take 2 promotion. I was dumb, didn't read the rules closely enough and pissed away my chance at the $25 bonus. Oh well.
06:32 am Quick update... over the past 24 hours, my bankroll has went from a combined 21.93 to a cash only $32.28. So, discounting the $5 for the Take 2 bonus and the $5 from the Daily Dollar tourney, I netted about 35c on SNGs and rings tonight. That's not as bad as it sounds, though. I'm not good at cash tables and the only reason I have been playing ring games at all was to pick up that Take 2 bonus. I even had to re-up on one table because of a misread (didn't notice that the board paired threes, so I didn't take into consideration the dude might have raised preflop with A-rag in early position). Cash games just play differently - and take a different set of assumptions - than tourney play. And I know that, I just failed to take it into account.
[1] That is, sitting in 849th place out of 1418 players remaining in the original field of 5,773.
An aside on FT Bankrolls: FT pays out in 5 different currencies. Most people will play with "Play Money", which is just that: you bet play money, you win play money. On the real money side, the base currency is the standard US dollar ($), and you use them like you would cash in a casino. The rest are a bit more involved.
First you have Full Tilt Points (FTP). They're Full Tilt's version of a customer loyalty program. Garner enough and you can enter into points tournaments, or trade them in for prizes -- a range of things from branded apparel to instructional videos and courses to electronics to a car (a Mini Cooper S, only 6,000,000 FTP). You earn FTPs by playing real money games: 1 FTP for every dollar raked in a cash game you're involved in, and 7 FTP for every dollar in tournament entry fees you pay.
Then there's Satellite Tokens. Available in $26 and $75 denominations, these prizes are awarded for winning certain satellite or points tournaments. Tokens can be used to enter any $24+2 or $69+6 tournament (respectively). I don't have any of these. Mostly because I don't want any of these. Even if I won a $26 Token, it'd have to sit. There's no way I'm good enough right now to play in a $26 tournament. I'm doing good to place in the 1.25, 2.00 and 2.25 tournaments I play. Strange thing I've noticed though. I do better in the 2 and 2.25 tournaments than I do in the 1.25s. I think its because I've got enough theory under my belt that I start looking for my opponents to have recognizable betting patterns, or some logic to their play and starting hand range. I can't count the number of times in $1.25s I've reraised the flop with top trips only to be outdrawn by what at the time was a middle pair that turned into a boat.
Finally, there's tournament dollars ($T). Certain tournaments - notably points tourneys - pay out in $T instead of cash. You also get credited $T (instead of cash) for winning a satellite and then un-registering from the main tournament. $T can be used to enter any tournament, but $T can only be used to enter tournaments. If you want to play in a ring game, you'll need to exchange the $T for cash. The exchange rate is $T1 = $0.95; or rather, there's a 5% commission (rounded up) on a tournament dollar exchange.
I managed to bust out of the $100 US Freeroll really freaking early. Trip 10s vs. a board set to flush that I did not see until after I had pushed all-in.
The Daily Dollar isn't going nearly as well for me, either.
150/300/25, I'm sitting with 8350 chips, putting me in 849/(1418/5773)[1]. Good news is my chair position, most hands I'm acting directly after the high stack on the table - who's sitting in 7th place in the tournament.
200/400/50 Pocket Rockets just doubled me up. Button -3 I raise 3x bb with AA. Big Blind calls me off. Flop comes Q/rag/rag. She bets, I push, figuring she has top pair (to my over pair), she calls; showing Q5. Aces hold up, I double up and put her on tilt. She goes out the next hand on A-rag vs A-J to the big stack, and the table breaks up. I've bumped my position up to around 400/(1200/5773)
250/500/50 Less than 30 people below the bubble. The current bubble boy has 1340 in chips.
300/600/75 Woo! I'm In the Money! --470th currently, but the blinds keep getting bigger...
400/800/100 A tense double-up (KK vs AQ) vaulted me up near 200th position as another prize level falls. I'm at 29K, next prize bubble currently has 6.5K .
500/1000/125 As the blinds keep getting bigger, my stack is holding up fairly well. We're into the $3.00 prize level (720-541); I'm in 275th with a 25.5K stack. I haven't been able to play many hands because of a lack of cards; though it seems the 23o I was just holding would have been good against the pusher's A10. Right now the next prize bubble is around 10K.
600/1200/150 Another blind level, another prize level. 260/530, next cutoff is 360th. Again, need to make some moves if I want to stay in the competition -- I've only got 7K on the bubble boy.
600/1200/150 A8 in the big blind vs A4 in the small, A on flop, SB leads, I raise, he re-raises, I push, he calls. Safe river and turn mean I double up and bounce myself up to about 125th /460. Don't feel too bad for the SB though; he doubled up the next hand.
3rd Break (800/1600/200): 133/436. After a slow start, I'm doing much better than I had imagined I would be at this point. I've locked up $3.50 -- a 350% ROI -- and with 49K chips, look pretty good to make the next prize level (360th place, currently ~16K). And the best part is, I'm not doing anything special: I'm making good lay downs, playing position fairly well, and keeping a low profile.
1000/2000/250: Another run of dry cards. I'm still holding in with 40K, thanks to some timely folds; and I've made it to the next prize level (next cutoff: 270th, ~20K). Still, with 20BBs, I should probably think about loosening my starting hand requirements a bit.
1200/2400/300: Still on a dry run. Down to 30K, I'm well below the cutoff for the next prize level. So at the moment, it really doesn't matter if I bust out: I just don't have enough chips to stall through this prize level. So we up the agression a tad. Still not gonna play crap hands, but I'm gonna have to actually play.
I'm holding KQ off-suit UTG+2. Action folds to me, I raise 3 times the big blind, and everybody else folds. And that's how you steal the blinds.
**sigh** Got a little too anxious. Reraised all in from the big blind with AK. The board gives my one caller a pair of jacks. Oh well, I still upped my bankroll 5 bucks. Now, I need to scoot over to the ring tables to pick up a FTP, to qualify for the $5 bonus for the Take 2 promotion. I was dumb, didn't read the rules closely enough and pissed away my chance at the $25 bonus. Oh well.
06:32 am Quick update... over the past 24 hours, my bankroll has went from a combined 21.93 to a cash only $32.28. So, discounting the $5 for the Take 2 bonus and the $5 from the Daily Dollar tourney, I netted about 35c on SNGs and rings tonight. That's not as bad as it sounds, though. I'm not good at cash tables and the only reason I have been playing ring games at all was to pick up that Take 2 bonus. I even had to re-up on one table because of a misread (didn't notice that the board paired threes, so I didn't take into consideration the dude might have raised preflop with A-rag in early position). Cash games just play differently - and take a different set of assumptions - than tourney play. And I know that, I just failed to take it into account.
[1] That is, sitting in 849th place out of 1418 players remaining in the original field of 5,773.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Poker: 4/6
8am. After some good luck building both my bankroll and FTP balance, I had busted out of a $1+.25 SNG this morning on what I thought was a bad beat. Big blind, J2. Cutoff smooth calls, and there's no way I'm raising with a Jack-duece. Flop comes 2-2-8. I bet my trip 2s, dude raises me all-in. I call, thinking Ace and face card, or at worst over pair. I show my trips, he shows pocket 10s. Turn's clean, but dude hits a 10 on the river. Good news, I had the right read on him and I got my money in when I had the better hand; bad news, he sucked out and knocked me out in 5th when top 3 pays. Balance: 9.97.
9:20 pm: Generally following the FTPA[1] advise has gotten me in decent position as I'm creeping up on the second break -- and cashing -- in the Daily Dollar ($1, $10K guar, 1080/6119)[2]. Right now, with blinds at 300/150/25[3], I'm sitting at 14.6K chips, and sitting around 463rd out of the 1502 players left in the tournament. I've been doing fairly well, and have seen an inordinate number of pocket jacks. Best part is, they've been good to me. I've only not won with them tonight once:
UTG+1 smooth calls; I'm cutoff (Button -1), raise 3.3x, dude calls. Flop comes K9A; dude bets pot, I fold. With the Ace/King falling on the flop, there's no way I can really call with just Jacks. When someone in early position calls, I'm thinking he probably has either and A or K, and when he calls a raise from late position, I'm thinking he probably has A/Face or KQ, something of that nature. That makes a pot-sized bet really hard to call with AK on the board. Now, if it had came AKQ or AK10, I'd have considered it longer because instead of 2 cards that would improve my hand, I'd have 6 outs, which would be about 1/4 chance of improving my hand rather than less than 1/10.
9:37 pm: 200/400/50 Knock-out! BB's antes all-in. I'm UTG+2, and I raise to 2000 (5xBB) on AdKd. Cutoff raises to 4800, I push All-In 13,560; Cutoff calls AI, shows AcKs; big blind has 6s2d. Best cutoff can hope for is the flush to go his way, otherwise we're looking at a split pot.
Board comes 6d,8d,9h; pairing BB, but I'm more interested in the 25K side pot than the 270 chip main pot. Turn gives me 3d and the diamond flush. I'm over 26K chips and top 200 with around 1200 left in the tourney.
9:55 pm: 300/600/75 I'm In The Money! As the first $2.20 prize gets paid, I'm sitting in 226th position. The next payout level is 900th.
10:07pm: 400/800/100 I'm In The Money! As 900th place gets paid $2.50, I'm sitting in 230th Position. The next payout level is 720th.
10:23 pm: 500/1000/125 I'm In The Money! I wasn't even paying attention as 720th paid out, right now, i'm sitting at 293/661... 540th is the next cutoff, which will earn $3.50.
10:36 pm: 600/1200/150 I'm in the money! 3.50 is mine now, as I'm sitting in 348th as the 540 place player goes out. 360th is the next cutoff, so I should probably look to play some more hands.
10:42 pm: Third Break. OK, I've made the third break, and I'm still playing as 398/472. I'm happy with my play so far tonight; not only have I at least tripled my entry fee, I'm playing smart poker. No bad beats either way, and even though I'm down to about 13 BB, I can tell I'm not in 'panic mode' yet. I'm playing for another 70c - a 1c/2c table starting pile, really.
11:05 pm: 1000/2000/250 Lucky Break: I get dealt JJ sitting in the big blind. Fold to the small blind who raises 3x, I raise all the other couple hundred to put me all in, he calls; shows A3o. Flop AJ10. I ride the river out to almost triple up because of the antes. This puts me just far enough ahead that I scoot past the 360th position into $4.20. 270th pays $5, but I don't think I'll get there. A few more good hands, though; and who knows?
11:12pm: 1000/2000/250 A 4x bet in early position backed by QQs nets me some blinds, I'm at 17K in 300th place.
11:13 pm: 1200/2400/500: Got my money in from the button on a 60/40 shot. My AcJs/Kc3c. So of course, flop comes 2 clubs, turn shows club (his flush), and the river... Qh. Damn. Out in 302nd quadrupling my entry fee. Not bad for about 4 hours work.I'm gonna hit the Late Night Happy Hour for double FTPs a while (trying to cash out that next $5 on my first deposit bonus).
[1] Full Tilt Poker Academy. Basically, their advice involves what hands to play in what position, how much and when to bet/raise.
[2] That is, a $1 entry fee, $10,000 guaranteed prize pool, and 1080 places pay out of the 6119 entries.
[3] Ante of 25, 300 chip big blind/minimum bet, 150 small blind.
9:20 pm: Generally following the FTPA[1] advise has gotten me in decent position as I'm creeping up on the second break -- and cashing -- in the Daily Dollar ($1, $10K guar, 1080/6119)[2]. Right now, with blinds at 300/150/25[3], I'm sitting at 14.6K chips, and sitting around 463rd out of the 1502 players left in the tournament. I've been doing fairly well, and have seen an inordinate number of pocket jacks. Best part is, they've been good to me. I've only not won with them tonight once:
UTG+1 smooth calls; I'm cutoff (Button -1), raise 3.3x, dude calls. Flop comes K9A; dude bets pot, I fold. With the Ace/King falling on the flop, there's no way I can really call with just Jacks. When someone in early position calls, I'm thinking he probably has either and A or K, and when he calls a raise from late position, I'm thinking he probably has A/Face or KQ, something of that nature. That makes a pot-sized bet really hard to call with AK on the board. Now, if it had came AKQ or AK10, I'd have considered it longer because instead of 2 cards that would improve my hand, I'd have 6 outs, which would be about 1/4 chance of improving my hand rather than less than 1/10.
9:37 pm: 200/400/50 Knock-out! BB's antes all-in. I'm UTG+2, and I raise to 2000 (5xBB) on AdKd. Cutoff raises to 4800, I push All-In 13,560; Cutoff calls AI, shows AcKs; big blind has 6s2d. Best cutoff can hope for is the flush to go his way, otherwise we're looking at a split pot.
Board comes 6d,8d,9h; pairing BB, but I'm more interested in the 25K side pot than the 270 chip main pot. Turn gives me 3d and the diamond flush. I'm over 26K chips and top 200 with around 1200 left in the tourney.
9:55 pm: 300/600/75 I'm In The Money! As the first $2.20 prize gets paid, I'm sitting in 226th position. The next payout level is 900th.
10:07pm: 400/800/100 I'm In The Money! As 900th place gets paid $2.50, I'm sitting in 230th Position. The next payout level is 720th.
10:23 pm: 500/1000/125 I'm In The Money! I wasn't even paying attention as 720th paid out, right now, i'm sitting at 293/661... 540th is the next cutoff, which will earn $3.50.
10:36 pm: 600/1200/150 I'm in the money! 3.50 is mine now, as I'm sitting in 348th as the 540 place player goes out. 360th is the next cutoff, so I should probably look to play some more hands.
10:42 pm: Third Break. OK, I've made the third break, and I'm still playing as 398/472. I'm happy with my play so far tonight; not only have I at least tripled my entry fee, I'm playing smart poker. No bad beats either way, and even though I'm down to about 13 BB, I can tell I'm not in 'panic mode' yet. I'm playing for another 70c - a 1c/2c table starting pile, really.
11:05 pm: 1000/2000/250 Lucky Break: I get dealt JJ sitting in the big blind. Fold to the small blind who raises 3x, I raise all the other couple hundred to put me all in, he calls; shows A3o. Flop AJ10. I ride the river out to almost triple up because of the antes. This puts me just far enough ahead that I scoot past the 360th position into $4.20. 270th pays $5, but I don't think I'll get there. A few more good hands, though; and who knows?
11:12pm: 1000/2000/250 A 4x bet in early position backed by QQs nets me some blinds, I'm at 17K in 300th place.
11:13 pm: 1200/2400/500: Got my money in from the button on a 60/40 shot. My AcJs/Kc3c. So of course, flop comes 2 clubs, turn shows club (his flush), and the river... Qh. Damn. Out in 302nd quadrupling my entry fee. Not bad for about 4 hours work.I'm gonna hit the Late Night Happy Hour for double FTPs a while (trying to cash out that next $5 on my first deposit bonus).
[1] Full Tilt Poker Academy. Basically, their advice involves what hands to play in what position, how much and when to bet/raise.
[2] That is, a $1 entry fee, $10,000 guaranteed prize pool, and 1080 places pay out of the 6119 entries.
[3] Ante of 25, 300 chip big blind/minimum bet, 150 small blind.
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